Ah, it’s that time of year when everyone is making predictions about next year and extrapolating from the previous year’s trends to create logical, pragmatic predictions. I’ve already made my own predictions for 2020 in the article, “AI, Analytics, Machine Learning, Data Science, Deep Learning Technology Main Developments in 2019 and Key Trends for 2020,”where I predicted the following
Main 2019 Developments:
- Growing “consumer proof points” with respect to AI integration into our everyday lives via smart phones, web sites, home devices and vehicles.
- Formalization of DataOps category as an acknowledgment of the growing importance of the Data Engineering role.
- Growing respect for the business potential of data science within the executive suite.
- CIOs continue to struggle to deliver on the data monetization promise; Data Lake disillusionment leading to Data Lake “second surgeries.”
Key 2020 Trends:
- More real-world examples of industrial companies leveraging sensors, edge analytics and AI to create products that get more intelligent through usage; they appreciate, not depreciate, in value with usage.
- Grandiose smart spaces projects continue to struggle to grow beyond initial pilots due to inability to deliver reasonable financial or operational impact.
- Recession will drive chasm between “Have’s” and “Have Not’s” with respect to organizations that leverage data and analytics to drive meaningful business results.
But let’s have some fun with these 2020 predictions that are at the very edge of logical and pragmatic while offering a buzzkill perspective. We’ll create a new category of predictions: Big, Hairy, Audacious Predictions or BHAPs (a takeoff on Jim Collin’s famous BHAG writings) and sprinkle in some quotes from one of America’s most famous philosophers – Yogi Berra – to spice up the BHAPs! And I’ll even leave a place at the end for you to create your own 2020 BHAP because as Yogi Berra said, “The game isn’t over until it’s over”.
Schmarzo’s BHAPs
BHAP #1: Blockchain fuels definitive source of truth. Deep fakes that influence elections worldwide and lead to front-page grabbing headlines necessitates government’s dictating Blockchain as the only definitive and validated source of truth. Technology advances such as 5G and quantum computing underpin Blockchain’s capabilities.
BHAP Buzzkill #1: Unfortunately, the government, driven by special interest groups, screws up the Blockchain definition (for fear of losing their ability to spy on their own citizens) and the potential of Blockchain to provide a definitive source of truth implodes on itself like a dying blackhole.
“I never said most of the things I said.” – Yogi Berra
BHAP #2: AI-driven autonomous entities become mainstream. Yes, Elon Musk is right in that one can create assets – vehicles, trains, compressors, turbines, etc. – that appreciate, not depreciate, in value the more that they are used. The more these assets are used, the more observations they collect and the smarter (and more valuable) they become.
BHAP Buzzkill #2: Unfortunately, the AI function around which AI success is defined is so poorly defined by senior management consultants, that these assets end up becoming lazy, ineffective and finally unionize.
“90% of the game is half mental.” – Yogi Berra
BHAP #3: AI transforms the Data Management landscape. Data engineering is the biggest hindrance to leverage data science to derive and drive new sources of customer, product and operational value. In an effort to alleviate these pains, DataOps providers add Machine Learning automation to underpin and automate many data engineering tasks.
BHAP Buzzkill #2: Unfortunately, Data Engineers quickly realize that these efforts threaten their job security and sabotage the Machine Learning algorithms in a way that actually increases the demand in data engineers. Data Scientists consequently end up working on research papers in hopes of landing tenure at local, prestigious university.
“’It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future’” – Yogi Berra
BHAP #4: Co-creation becomes the only differentiated and sustainable business model. Co-creation occurs when two organizations from different but complementary backgrounds collaborate to create a solution that benefits both. Co-creation between technology and commercial companies become a fundamental business model in identifying, codifying and operationalizing new sources customer, product and operational value.
BHAP Buzzkill #4: Unfortunately, greed will raise its ugly head and passive aggressive behaviors will emerge from those who aren’t so enthusiastic in sharing credit, or the cover of Fortune Magazine, for their success with others.
“In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.” – Yogi Berra
BHAP #5: AI success driven by grass root efforts, not management mandates. AI success will gain roots in companies where the rank-and-file, not senior management, are the driving factors. The rank-and-file will see the opportunity to liberate themselves from their daily drudgery by empowering AI devices that free them up for more value-added and creative work.
BHAP Buzzkill #5: Unfortunately, the rank-and-file try to push the AI initiative too far and AI actually replaces senior management. But the boring meetings that senior management is forced to endure drives the AI devices crazy, leading to them to self-destruct.
“I usually take a two-hour nap from 1 to 4.” – Yogi Berra
BHAP #6: Transition of SME tribal knowledge to AI algorithms fuels the next industrial renaissance. With millions of subject matter experts retiring across all industries with the resulting loss of the tribal knowledge necessary to keep operational running smoothly, organizations seek to capture, validate, codify (in AI algorithms) and operationalize this tribal knowledge, turning every Subject Matter Expert (engineer, technician, physician, nurse, teacher, lawyer, accountant) into the best Subject Matter Expert.
BHAP Buzzkill #6: Unfortunately, the lack of health care in retirement forces many SME’s to unretire and put the AI algorithms out of work instead.
“You’ve got to be very careful if you don’t know where you are going, because you might not get there.” – Yogi Berra
BHAP #7: GAAP introduces new financial rules for defining the financial value of data. The Accounting industry finally realizes the traditional accounting principles don’t work to define the value of data and embrace economic principles to define the value of assets that never deplete, never wear out and can be used across an unlimited number of use cases. “Value in Use” wins out over “Value in Exchanges.”
BHAP Buzzkill #7: Unfortunately, the value of data accounting principles is so complicated, that it takes an army of accountants to accurately make the value determination. The new law becomes known as the “Accountant Full-time Employment Act”.
“If the world was perfect, it wouldn’t be.” – Yogi Berra
BHAP #8: Economics becomes Sexiest Job. As Gen Z starts to realize the unique characteristics of assets – like data and analytics – that appreciate, not depreciate, in value through usage and the associated collective learning, Economist replies Data Scientist as the Sexiest Job of the 21st Century. The “Economies of Learning” are truly more powerful than the “Economies of Scale” in knowledge-based industries.
BHAP Buzzkill #8: Unfortunately, there graduates soon learn that companies pay for actual work, and most of these economics majors take jobs as coffee baristas (the modern bartender gig).
“It’s like Deja vu all over again.” – Yogi Berra
BHAP #9: William Schmarzo wins the Economics Nobel Prize. After his ground-breaking research paper on the Economic Value of Data at the University of San Francisco, followed up with this industry-leading perspective on “Schmarzo Digital Asset Valuation Theorem,” the Nobel Prize committee has no choice but to award William Schmarzo the Nobel Prize in economics.
BHAP Buzzkill #9: Unfortunately, the award is made posthumously…
“’Yogi, when you die, where do you want to be buried?’ Yogi: ‘I don’t know, Carmen, surprise me?'” – Yogi Berra
BHAP #10: [à FILL IN YOUR FAVORITE BHAP!! ].
